Congress return in Haryana, hung Assembly in J&K: Poll of exit polls

The Congress is likely to return in Haryana after a 10-year hiatus, while the Congress-National Conference alliance has the edge in Jammu and Kashmir, which is likely to deliver a fractured mandate, as per the poll of exit polls. The prediction, if true, not only comes as a morale booster for the INDIA bloc after it punched above its weight in the Lok Sabha polls, but adds to the momentum ahead of the Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Delhi Assembly elections.
An aggregate of three exit polls indicate that the Congress will win 54 of Haryana’s 90 seats — comfortably ahead of the halfway mark of 45. If the exit poll predictions prove to be true, the Congress is expected to regain control of the north Indian state after a decade-long absence.
In Jammu and Kashmir, which also has 90 seats, the Congress-National Conference alliance is likely to win 40 seats as per the aggregate of three exit polls — six short of the majority mark. Exit polls, though, can often get it wrong.
All the three exit polls predicted a comfortable majority for the Congress in Haryana, where the BJP was eyeing a record third term. While India Today CVoter has predicted 50–58 seats for the Congress, whose campaign was led from the front by former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, Republic Matrize has given a maximum of 62 seats for the party.
The prediction, if true, marks a stunning turnaround for the Congress, which won only 31 seats in the 2019 election. The party, which ran an aggressive campaign ‘Haryana Maange Hisab’ against the BJP government, also wrested five Lok Sabha seats this year.
The BJP, facing a decade of anti-incumbency and anger of the farming community, is likely to bag 23 seats, as per the poll of polls. Bhaskar Reporters Poll predicted a maximum of 29 seats for the saffron party.
If the exit polls are to be believed, the BJP’s ploy of changing the guard in Haryana to dilute the discontent against the party has failed to pay dividends. Nayab Singh Saini was made the Chief Minister, replacing Haryana strongman Manohar Lal Khattar.
In 2019, the BJP fell short of a majority, winning 40 seats, but managed to stitch a post-poll alliance with Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) to form its government for a second consecutive term.
Dushyant Chautala’s JJP, which played a kingmaker in the last polls by winning 10 seats, may win only 3 seats this time. Independents may get 10 seats, even though Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is unlikely to open its account.
The Congress-National Conference alliance has the edge in Jammu and Kashmir, which went to polls for the first time in a decade and after the abrogation of Article 370, as per the poll of polls. Like the scenario in 2014, the Union Territory is again likely to see a hung Assembly.
While India Today CVoter has predicted 40–48 seats for the INDIA bloc, Republic Matrize has given 31–36 seats. Bhaskar Reporters Poll has forecast 35–40 seats for the Congress-NC alliance.
The polls predicted 29 seats for the BJP, with all of them coming from the Jammu region. Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP, which emerged as the single-largest party with 28 seats in 2014, may win only 8 seats.
However, the PDP, along with Independents backed by Engineer Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party, may turn out to be kingmakers in case of a hung Assembly. An aggregate of the poll of polls predicted 13 seats for Independents, who are likely to have been the beneficiary of the waning of the PDP’s popularity.